Could the dream of VR end with Moore's Law?
OK Moore's Law is nearing it's physical limitations. You can only make working transistors on silicon down to about 5nm, after that strange quantum effects kick in and the super thin wires heat up and burn out or don't last as long.
And Moore's Law has provided us with smaller, faster, cheaper, better chips every 1-2 years.
Note the GPU guys seems to be hovering about 28nm size, and Intel has led the way down to 22nm and is pushing for 16,10 and even predicts 7nm high end chips by 2018.
And to get around these limitations already memory is being stacked up at higher die sizes so that layers of transistors take up less space. Nvidia, AMD and Intel are planning on bringing out chips with the memory stacked onto the logic.
So we still have a bit of room left in Moore's Law but it's getting cramped down there.
My point is we need about 8k+ to present someone with a high enough resolution image to immerse them in something that matches reality. Current high end GPU's and CPU's struggle to drive 4k displays at gaming frame rates VR needs a minimum of 75fps to 90fps and an ideal rate of 120fps.
So with Moore's Law on it's last legs, is there a chance that we will not be able to get to affordable (as in < $1000) VR systems that can visually simulate reality.
For instance to run a 4k display at gaming frame rates you currently need two high end GPU's costing about $500 each, strapped to a high end PC costing over $1000 for best results.
I know we are used to the trickle down effect where last years high end GPU and CPU becomes mainstream and drops in price but when Moore's Law ends that stops happening. To get a faster CPU or GPU you need to pay more as they will need to be larger, through either stacking or die size.
If I'm right then AAA gamers who can afford $2000+ VR rigs will get the 8k you can't tell it's VR experience at 120fps.
But the consumer version of VR that can fit on a $500 mobile phone/VR HMD well get a lesser version of VR.
And the Palmer Lucky dream of affordable perfect VR for everyone might not happen.
What do you think will the faltering Moore's Law prevent the hardware from making cheap affordable, you can't tell it's not reality VR, from happening?
And Moore's Law has provided us with smaller, faster, cheaper, better chips every 1-2 years.
Note the GPU guys seems to be hovering about 28nm size, and Intel has led the way down to 22nm and is pushing for 16,10 and even predicts 7nm high end chips by 2018.
And to get around these limitations already memory is being stacked up at higher die sizes so that layers of transistors take up less space. Nvidia, AMD and Intel are planning on bringing out chips with the memory stacked onto the logic.
So we still have a bit of room left in Moore's Law but it's getting cramped down there.
My point is we need about 8k+ to present someone with a high enough resolution image to immerse them in something that matches reality. Current high end GPU's and CPU's struggle to drive 4k displays at gaming frame rates VR needs a minimum of 75fps to 90fps and an ideal rate of 120fps.
So with Moore's Law on it's last legs, is there a chance that we will not be able to get to affordable (as in < $1000) VR systems that can visually simulate reality.
For instance to run a 4k display at gaming frame rates you currently need two high end GPU's costing about $500 each, strapped to a high end PC costing over $1000 for best results.
I know we are used to the trickle down effect where last years high end GPU and CPU becomes mainstream and drops in price but when Moore's Law ends that stops happening. To get a faster CPU or GPU you need to pay more as they will need to be larger, through either stacking or die size.
If I'm right then AAA gamers who can afford $2000+ VR rigs will get the 8k you can't tell it's VR experience at 120fps.
But the consumer version of VR that can fit on a $500 mobile phone/VR HMD well get a lesser version of VR.
And the Palmer Lucky dream of affordable perfect VR for everyone might not happen.
What do you think will the faltering Moore's Law prevent the hardware from making cheap affordable, you can't tell it's not reality VR, from happening?
