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Another perspective of VR growth.

nightauditor198
Adventurer
Hey guys,

I kept thinking last night about the thread by VrMatthew about the potential growth of the VR market. It is a very interesting question, and I felt that there might be another way of getting some numbers.

For that I have not looked in the hazy future but looked in the past at other gaming systems that were revolutionary in their time.

I started in the 80ies, with the Amiga 500.

I found a pretty good statistic, which I´ll copy here:

Sales 1985: 100K units
Sales 1986: 200K units
Sales 1987: 300K units
Sales 1988: 400K units
Sales 1989: 600K units
Sales 1990: 750K units
Sales 1991: 1.035 million units
Sales 1992: 390K units
Sales 1993: 155K units
Sales 1994: 50K

TOTAL SOLD = 3980K (3,980,000 million units).

Then I picked the GameBoy as the next mark, which was released in 1989.

In the first year it sold 1 million units, which climbed to 3.2 million in 1990 and 4.4 million in 1991. Sales figures kept climbing from there.

We can already see a general increase in volume as well, as the GameBoy attracted a bigger and younger audience than the Amiga.

But now, let´s jump ahead a bit and let us look at the PS2. For the reason that I think it compares a bit better to VR in relative numbers. People knew it was coming, they were looking forward to it. It wasn´t a "surprise" like the Amiga or GameBoy.

Now, here it is where things get interesting, and where we start to deviate hard from the rather conservative figures in the other thread.

The PS2 sold 500K units... on the FIRST DAY, which happened in November of 2000. Just let that sink in for a little.

The gaming market as a whole had grown so much, that those numbers were possible. The PS2 wasn´t just bought by kids (gameboy) or adults (amiga), everyone wanted one.

By March 2001 they managed to sell a total of 10.61 million units.

In the year following that, they sold a further 18.07 million and in the year after that they sold 22.52 million units, which was the top selling year with almost 2 million units sold per month.

Sales figures slowly climbed down afterwards until they bottomed at about 6 million sold in 2011.

Let´s jump ahead another step and look at the playstation 4. Another gaming tech that was highly anticipated and appealled to a wide audience, although we still are not approaching the 50+ generation with this product unlike the iPad.

The PS4 was launched in November of 2013. In August 2013 Sony announced over a million pre-orders for the PS4.

Additionally in the first 24 hours they sold over 1 million units in north america alone. And it continued to sell a total of 22.3 million units globally as of March 31st this year.

This would amount to roughly 1.5 million units per month.

And now lastly, let us look at the iPad. This technology is kind of unique in IT because it actually sells to almost all age groups. Even more so than VR will in the beginning, but I think this should give us some idea how a groundbreaking product that all ages would buy will do in the market.

The iPad was announced in Januar of 2010 (amazing that it´s "just" been 5 years, right?). At this point there had been rumors already that were fueled by the success of the iPhone.

It started to sell in March of 2010 and managed to sell 1 million units until May 2010, which is relatively conservative. But the fun has just started. At this point we are still selling to early adopters, the 40+ generation still has to discover the product for themselves.

Sales started to pick up in 2010, reaching 4.19 million units sold for the last quarter in 2010, which equates to roughly 1.3 million units sold per month. Until March 2011 when the iPad 2 was released, they managed to sell a total of 15 million iPad 1.

That managed to further increase sales to over 11 million units for the last quarter in 2011. In total they roughly sold 33 million iPads in 2011, roughly 2.9 million units per month. At this point the market was ready for it, all age groups were getting involved, things are starting to pick up even more speed.

Sales started to grow further and reached their peak so far in Q1 of 2014 when they managed to sell over 26 million units in a 3 month period.

Now, what do all those figures and examples mean for VR?

Here are my predictions:

Over 1 million pre-orders for VR in general until the end of 2015.

IF Vive starts to sell in November 2015, then they will have sold 2.5 million units or more until the end of 2015.

That might sound too high for some, but it is actually the conservative number. PS4 manged to sell 4.1 million units for last years christmas season.

Total VR units sold in 2016 alone: over 25 million units, with a further growth in 2017 when 2nd gen hardware hits the stores.

So here we go, there is my prediction. High-end VR (PC) and semi-high-end VR (consoles, morpheus etc.) will take off like a rocket.

As soon as "real" VR launches, noone will buy MobileVr anymore. There is only one hope I see for that, and that is that mobile datatransfer gets quick enough so you can compute in the cloud and just stream the results to the phone hmd. But I don´t see that happening in 2016.

I have read a prediction that GearVr will outsell the oculus cv1 by 20 % a month in 2016. I honestly cannot see that happening.
14 REPLIES 14

Fredrum
Expert Protege
I keep thinking that maybe the CV1/Vive sales numbers might be similar to the Kinect. They are both hyped and somewhat eccentric (I imagine in the mind of the general public) peripherals to a widespread main platform. Something that might catch peoples imagination even if the promise is a bit woolly without any killer apps.

Now the Kinect was way cheaper and also probably had a more mainstream launch. Wasn't there a certain Mr Spielberg involved I seem to remember? I suppose he is also associated with the lasted VR bible Ready Player One.

Don't think (nu)gen1 VR will be the 'biggest hardware sales launch ever' or whatever they said about the Kinect. But to me there seem to be similarities.

Cheers
Fred

Ashles
Protege
"nightauditor1981" wrote:
I don´t really know what you are arguing about? If you think those numbers are too high or low WITH the total number of PC users in mind that can run the tech then just say that.

I think your projections are far too optimistic based on what users currently own - I thought that was clear in my posts.

Fact is, there are plenty of pc users today who have the hardware already in their living rooms to run consumer VR.

I didnt say there weren't many - I just think you are massively ioverestimating the number. Even many of the people on these forums (who should be mostly VR enthusiasts and developers) continually struggle to get adequate VR performance at the moment. The avergae person just wants to plug it in and for it to work.

The points you mentioned are correct, but they only influence the total market size.
And no matter how small or challenged you think that market is, there still will be sales.

Absolutely there will be sales, and lots of them - I never said otherwise. Hundreds of thousands of sales in a continuous stream will make the VR companies happy and encourage further development and growth.

So, let´s talk numbers. If you think those projections are wrong, what do you think is more realistic?

I reckon 4 (possibly up to 7) million VR units sold in 2016. And that would be a great start for the industry.
If it is more than that I would consider 2016 a wild success for VR and I would be delighted.

PS: If the current estimates you mention refer to the estimated 100K sales a month, then I really think that is way off the mark. Or in stronger words: 100K sales a month would mean failure. And I don´t think VR will fail

A slow start does not mean failure. VR/AR will without any doubt in my mind become a massive media in the next few years. But it isn't going to take over the world immediately with a massive bang. In the same way smartphones didn't.
I had a windows mobile for years before the iPhone came along. I loved my little windows phone. It did everything I wanted, it had wireless AND mobile internet, it had all sorts of programmes, it had a PC like folder structure. I thought mobile computing was great, but I was in a tiny minority. It took something like th iPhone to kick it off as a major industry.
VR will be the same - lots of great experiences in the early years and lots of early adopters pushing ther industry forward, and then some game-changing headset or must-have experience to kick it to mainstream.
We have to be realistic - our enthusiasm for VR just simply is not yet shared by the vast majority of the public.

PPS: Mobile users CAN be PC users as well. I personally own a smartphone, an iPad and a PC. Half the traffic on mobile, doesn´t mean that half the users don´t own a PC.

Again I never said it did. But it shows the steady increase in mobile usage. And to reiterate my point, it is unlikely most users have a PC capable of running decent VR experience.

PPPS: Your initial point that consoles are standalone tech is wrong as well. I don´t know about you, but I tend to use my consoles with flatscreen TV´s. And they are required tech for consoles that sit in the exact same price range as PC´s do. And that does not count peripherals like extra controllers, wheels etc.

Having a TV in a home is pretty much a given - and having a TV that can run a console is equally so. You would find very, very few people in a developed country who, if randomly asked, would be unable to use a console if given one.
The same simply cannot be said for VR. I don't know why you seem so reluctant to accept this. What proportion of US citizens do you genuinely believe if handed a Vive for free today would be able to use it at home?

As another point - aside from the technical restrictions there needs to be a public appetite for VR which is not currently there.

I work in a very large company (hundreds of thousands of employees globally). I am probably the main proponent of VR in my company and have had multiple meetings with relatively senior members of the group explaining how important I believe this technology to be, how big it is likely to be in the future and all the different applications it could help with.
There has been some interest, but ultimately noone has yet commissioned a Proof of Concept.

I agree that VR cannot be easily explained it has to be shown (I have given demos and had agencies in to give presentations) but there is still a gap in people's heads between what they conceptually understand it can do and how it might actually be applicable to them.
This gap will diminish (the same gap existed with mobile phones until the iPhone changed how people viewed them) but I believe you are overly optimistic in how quickly that will be.
It won't be this year.
There will be some increased interest next year (especially if Hololens starts producing some amazing experiences as well - MS have some serious publicity money to throw at Windows 10 and hololens) but I think 2017 will be when the killer apps and next gen headsets start to kick it all off properly.
"Into every life a little fantasy must fall..."

nightauditor198
Adventurer
"pedrw" wrote:
Virtual

Reality
You're being very, very optimistic! I think that by the end of 2016 will not be sold more than 1 or 2 million... Because most people are not interested in vr...


Look at the predictions in the link I posted. Even the pessimistic ones are WAY over that number. 1-2 million units for the VR market in total would mean failure. I still don´t think that VR will fail.

nightauditor198
Adventurer
"Ashles" wrote:


As another point - aside from the technical restrictions there needs to be a public appetite for VR which is not currently there.



I personally do not really know how you get that impression, but I personally live in a world where the exact opposite is the case. All the techblogs are talking VR, the industry is preparing for VR (nvidia, amd, windows 10, hardware), big studios are now comitting to VR (Ubisoft).

I know that I shared an optimistic perspective, but if there has been ANY tech in the last decades that deserved the hype, then I think it is VR.

You are making a lot of valid points, though and I thank you for them. We will all see at the end of the year if Vive sales will trickle in, or if they can´t produce quickly enough to supply the demand.

You also spoke of the gap, that we would have to overcome, and I absolutely agree. That gap will be instantly gone with the release of the vive. Instantly. People will play portal in the vive and absolutely flip their shit on youtube. People will convince other people how great it is.

I still strongly believe that the public will adapt quickly to VR. I think they want it, and they are ready to pay for it.

Usually gaming tech is bought by teens and tweens. This tech will be bought by grownups who first heard about it in the 80ies. The potential customers have money to spend.

Anyway, we´ll see how much preorders there will be. I still say will see millions of vives going over the counter this christmas season.

Half Life 3 will make it possible :lol: OK, now I am really optimistic hehe.

nightauditor198
Adventurer
"saviornt" wrote:


Since the Vive is the only HMD coming out in 2015, by the end of the year.. do you really think that they are going to sell 6.1 million units in, at most, 3 months? Yea... right.


No, I don´t think so, I said at least 2.5 million and I stand by that. Expecting 2018 as the year for VR means underestimating the experiences that first gen VR will deliver, imo.

Just look how much hype and youtube videos and media attention dk1 & 2 have produced over the last few years. We all know how different and amazing even the DK2 can be in some instances. We all know that it IS a completely different ballgame, makes completely new experiences possible.

The reason why the hype has not streched to the masses is that you have to try the technology to understand it. When you explain to a normal person that they get a screen on their face and can then experiences great things, it is not enough.

They have to try the tech to actually want one. And that takes consumer models. As soon as the first consumer VR product launches, I still believe that it will sell better than some people even here seem to think.

Plus, we are comparing numbers from individual products (PS, XBOX, IPHONE, etc.) to growth numbers for a whole new market in general.

In the end, we will all see who is closer with their prediction.

I say at least 2.5 million sold until new years. Let´s start with that