Sneaky Launch theory

[nightauditor198]

Hey guys,

I just wanted to share a theory of mine that has been going through my head lately.

We all know about the HTC vive, and that basically everyone is talking about VR in general. It may be the most anticipated gaming tech ever.

I also firmly believe that the first player in the market, the first company to offer a real VR product, will get a huge head start. If the vive would release in november 15 and oculus in february 16, they are simply too late. All the early adopters will have been playing the vive for three month at that point and they will need strong arguments to switch to oculus.

The first real consumer hmd will be the big winner, like the iphone dominated the smartphone market in the first years.

Oculus can't release anything that is much better than the vive because the bottleneck is cpu/gpu power, not hmd quality.

SO, the first player in the market will be the big winner, for a while at least...

I think oculus knows that too, and I think they didn't just sit around in the last half year. Now that other companies have helped to hype VR in general, the fruit is there for the picking so to speak.

I think (hope) that Oculus has been developing cv1 and a few core content titles over the last month and that they are building stock right now.

They will not announce a release date at E3, they will frigging start to sell it!

Just imagine how the world would flip out. Everyone and their mother would buy an oculus this summer, and VIVE would be the one that has to convince people to switch.

It would be pure genius in terms of a business strategy, and would explain why they played the silent game the last months.

So, what do you guys think? Just wishful thinking or a realistic possibility?

[Skelator]

My bet is big Oculus announcement at E3 for winter 2015 release date, Vive will not ship until March 2016. >;{}

[nightauditor198]

"Skelator" wrote:
My bet is big Oculus announcement at E3 for winter 2015 release date, Vive will not ship until March 2016. >;{}

Vive is already closer to a finished product than anything else out there. I would bet at least 100 bucks that vive will release ready for christmas 2015

[Skelator]

The hardware might be but with no devs kits ready yet I doubt they will have enough software. >;{}

[nightauditor198]

"Skelator" wrote:
The hardware might be but with no devs kits ready yet I doubt they will have enough software. >;{}

No offense, but you are talking about valve here... Think about that for a second. And they have been developing the vive for three years now.

I think content is the least of their problems.

[Anonymous]

"nightauditor1981" wrote:

"Skelator" wrote:
The hardware might be but with no devs kits ready yet I doubt they will have enough software. >;{}

No offense, but you are talking about valve here... Think about that for a second. And they have been developing the vive for three years now.

I think content is the least of their problems.

Meh - we are talking about valve here... they are not known to release things fast and bug free either. With that said - they will have to wait for 3rd party to make the software - test it with their hardware - fix any problems - then release. They are not even releasing a real beta hardware unless you are one of the selected few so that means your smaller companies have to wait.

Oculus on the other hand already has DK1 and DK2 out already. That means they are getting way more support over time as dev create and test different ideas by MANY more people. More games and ideas will come from Oculus first (as we see already) then whoever provides the best product will win.

[nightauditor198]

I was hoping for an objective discussion here...

Valve could release the vive with portal 2 alone and it would sell.

Anyway, I personally will buy the first hmd that is released.

If it is oculus that is fine, if it is vive that is fine as well.

[TomSD]

"nightauditor1981" wrote:
I also firmly believe that the first player in the market, the first company to offer a real VR product, will get a huge head start. If the vive would release in november 15 and oculus in february 16, they are simply too late. All the early adopters will have been playing the vive for three month at that point and they will need strong arguments to switch to oculus.

The first real consumer hmd will be the big winner, like the iphone dominated the smartphone market in the first years.

...except the iPhone did not dominate the smartphone market in the first years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone#Mass_adoption

It's the same story with the iPod (remember MP3 players?), iPad (remember tablet PCs?), Apple Watch (Android Wear, Pebble, etc), and so on.

History shows that being first is not such a huge advantage. Other factors are more important to achieving success and popularity. If anything, you can easily be punished for being first, a lesson Apple may have learned with products like the Newton.

[nightauditor198]

"TomSD" wrote:

...except the iPhone did not dominate the smartphone market in the first years:

Uhm maybe you should read through the links you post, before you post them...

In any case, maybe you could share some thoughts on topic?

[VizionVR]

HTC knows hardware. Would HTC announce something as important as commercial VR and not hit the deadline? I honestly don't know. Valve knows software. With HTC lighting a fire under Valve's ass, and Valve's good business association with many AAA gaming studios, I have no doubt that games are ready for Vive release. I don't see a release for Rift CV before Q4 2015. This has been the consensus for a long time and I'm sticking to it.