Were the critics right: Is VR just a Fad/Gimmick?

[Zenbane]

I have spent more time "lurking" instead of "contributing" to VR discussions this year, between this forum, reddit, and the Facebook groups. I have found myself wanting to do more observing and reflecting in 2019, as opposed to the active contributions I was making from 2016-2019. And a big part of that is because the overall VR landscape seems rather stale in comparison to the amazing strides made during the first 3 years of the CV1 era (speaking to both the original Rift and Vive here).

In 2018, it really felt like things were going to explode from some galactic battle of the VR Giants with everyone promising to "move VR forward" and "set a new standard." But as far as I can tell, every competitor has failed at truly moving the needle beyond the hype coming out of the 2016 CV1 releases:

• Apple still hasn't done anything meaningful in VR.
• Amazon has only dabbled in VR with some supportive Software.
• The Pimax 8K proved to be little more than an over-hyped kickstarter (this HMD is now selling in droves on E-bay).
• Valve's Index HMD proved to be "more of the same" and Valve Knuckles completely failed to meet the 2+ years of hype leading up to it. While I would agree that the Index is, overall, the best PCVR offering on the market today, this is only true because of the failures of its competitors; not because of the advances Index is making.
  
• HTC Vive Pro is all but obsolete. Rarely, if ever advertised, and now all attention is being pointed towards the next "dangling carrot," the Vive Cosmos.
• Facebook and Oculus failed to deliver a true Rift CV2, and their biggest claim to fame - the Oculus Quest - continues to offer a very limited software Library, much of which mimics what Rift users can already experience.
• After all these years, the Steam Hardware Survey still shows Oculus and Vive dominating the charts, with a minuscule number of competitors dangling at the bottom.
  
• The HP Reverb had great potential (even I considered buying one) but fell short in multiple areas compared to current offerings and general industry standards.
• Microsoft continues to dabble between Mixed Reality and HoloLens; with no flagship hardware nor a noteworthy software platform.
• PlayStationVR continues to linger, with little confirmation about a Gen 2 VR Kit; leaving communities to debate over interpretations of hidden signs of the truth.
  
• On the mobile front, GearVR and GO are slowly becoming vaporware. While Hulu drops support for Google DayDream.

These are my own personal observations based on my own sentiment and that of which I've observed across multiple VR communities. I will point out that the purpose of this thread is not to fuel a debate between VR products or competitors. I am putting every VR organization, sector, and product on the chopping block evenhandedly. In a nutshell: they are all failing to meet expectations in 2019.

There are a few other factors that has caused me to raise my concern about VR turning in to a Fad/Gimmick:

• AAA Software is still nowhere to be found. With VR, at best we get "AAA-like" experiences. Even AAA games like Skyrim and Fallout turn out to be "AAA-like" in VR. This lack of true AAA investment seems telling since we are nearly 4 years in to mainstream VR with no one feeling compelled to make the necessary investments to move out of "AAA-like" experiences. In fact, we are still getting Early Access software experiences on both Steam and the Oculus Store.
  
• Facility-based VR is becoming talked about more and more, which feels like a sign that VR is moving in to the fad/gimmick phase of modern arcades and internet cafes. I tried one of these VR "arcade rides" recently, and I can confirm that the experience is highly lackluster and does more to move VR in to a "gimmick" than a sophisticated platform. As a comparison, once upon a time we could play the Street Fighter arcade with Punching Pads instead of standard buttons. As we can clearly see... punching a pad never became a standard and was short lived. And if you see a game today that uses Punching Pads... you understand that this is a temporary fad/gimmick. Machines that move or vibrate while putting players in a VR HMD are the exact same thing.
  
• Augmented Reality is becoming a hotter topic than Virtual Reality this year. We have HoloLens 2 and Microsoft's move in to the Military Sector. Recently, 5-Nights at Freddy's released their AR trailer. On top of which, most of the predictions about the upcoming Oculus Conference revolve around Augmented Reality (i.e. people are feeling that AR will get a big push and stronger focus).

Again, these are just my observations and general sentiments to help give insight in to why I feel that asking the question about VR's fad/gimmick potential seems pertinent at this moment in time.

To give some thought as to why I am choosing the words "fad" and "gimmick," here is a quick view at outside sources:

An article from 2018
Is Virtual Reality a Fad or Is it the Future?
http://www.workspace.digital/is-virtual-reality-a-fad-or-is-it-the-future/

A blog from 2019
Virtual Reality is officially a fad. I am out
https://skarredghost.com/2019/04/01/virtual-reality-is-officially-a-fad-i-am-out/

An article from 2016
https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2016/10/15/virtual-reality-is-just-an-over-priced-gimmick/#484...
Virtual Reality Is Just An Over-Priced Gimmick, Nothing More

A recent article from 2019
Virtual Reality: The Future of Entertainment or Gimmick of the Wealthy?
https://www.dailyamerican.com/entertainment/highschoolhighlights/virtual-reality-the-future-of-enter...

Each of these articles, both old and new, point out similar factors that I've outlined here.

So... do you think that VR is still "the future"? Or do you think that VR did in fact turn out to be a Fad/Gimmick??

[Morgrum]

its bad enough that my damn phone listens to me there no way I am going to put an Alexa or googles version in my house.

[inovator]

Morgrum said:

its bad enough that my damn phone listens to me there no way I am going to put an Alexa or googles version in my house.

That's a good idea. I've become a slave of Alexa. Helllppppppppp meeeee!!!!!!

[Zenbane]

I have Alexa in 2 rooms in my home. One upstairs and one downstairs.

The one upstairs stays unpowered most of the time. I only turn it on when I decide to sit and play music on my guitar. I use that Alexa to play along with some favorite metal songs.

The downstairs Alexa is in my kitchen. Helps with the Television, alarm, and cooking timers. But I do get the regular emails about new Alexa abilities. It's all pretty basic stuff.

[falken76]

Zenbane said:

Back on topic,

As a side-comparison. I also feel that the current state of Artificial Intelligence (for the public sector) is also stuck in a fad/gimmick state. Think of Alexa, and the fact that her primary use is to do things like:

• Tell you the time and weather
• Turn electronic devices on/off
• Set an alarm or reminder
  

A.I. has so much more potential (e.g. predictive and behavioral analysis), but it is stuck doing rudimentary tasks as its main selling point. Similarly, VR has so much potential but it is stuck with video games as its main selling point.

So to me, these fad/gimmick dilemma isn't reflective of the technology itself, but of the current state of its applicability.

My Alexa's primary use is to collect copious amounts of dust as it does nothing because I have spent a lifetime of entering inquiries through a keyboard, I simply forget the damn thing is there until I see it under a mound of dust that reminds me I should clean more than I should be using the Alexa.

[Shadowmask72]

I think AI as in Alexa and chums is a different topic entirely. However, I wouldn't really call Alexa an AI per se. She doesn't think for herself and learn your routines and understand them, she's very reactionary. She is just a speech operated connection to the Internet and wifi enabled devices imo. Now if Alexa actually learned that I like to ask pretty much daily what the current temp is, whether it will rain today and tell me automatically when I walked into the living room in the morning then that would show some form of AI. Let's say I set a reminder to visit X after work at 6pm.  Alexa reminds me an hour before, but then asks "would you like me to book you a cab, so you can enjoy a drink whilst you are out".  

I be like...

"How did you know I drink?"

Alexa replies

" the other night you came home, tripped over the cat, knocked the coffee table over and then poured a double rum-and-coke in the kitchen".

 😮 

Playing along, I ask:

"Ok smarty pants what Rum?"

Alexa simply replies:

"Based on your shopping history, you rather enjoy an Appletons 12 year. May I recommend, you try Plantation XO apparently it's very good. Would you like me to order a bottle for you?"

 😮 

[Zenbane]

Shadowmask72 said:

However, I wouldn't really call Alexa an AI per se. She doesn't think for herself and learn your routines and understand them, she's very reactionary.

I agree for the most part, but there is one exception. Alexa does try to learn your vocal and speech patterns. Granted, that is more biometrics than strict AI, but it is a form of learning. Other than that, you are 100% correct (although Alexa's underlying technology is very much rooted in AI principles).

And that lends to my point. Alexa's current mainstream use is very reactionary and rudimentary, and so is that of Virtual Reality.

In much the same way Artificial Intelligence is more than just reactionary tasks like playing a song or setting an alarm, Virtual Reality is more than just another form of entertainment for 360 media and video games.

Yet most people understand VR as a gaming platform, just as most people understand Alexa to function as a form of Artificial Intelligence.

There's an Alexa AI team btw:
https://www.amazon.jobs/en/teams/alexa-ai

[Morgrum]

No you fools why must we tempt fate!

"Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind"

The next thing we know we will be subjugated by the machines and our few colonies who fought off the infection will have to detonate thermo-nuclear devices inside of the planetary computation cores to free us.

Just as Frank Herbert predicted...……….

We do not need A.I. we need Mentat's!

"It is by will alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the juice of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, the stains become a warning. It is by will alone I set my mind in motion."