04-07-2017 10:04 AM
04-07-2017 11:10 AM
04-07-2017 11:40 AM
04-07-2017 11:49 AM
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04-07-2017 12:08 PM
04-07-2017 12:35 PM
04-07-2017 01:04 PM
AndyW1384 said:
Happy to learn otherwise, of course, but I think that that this would be one of Mr. Kurzweil's predictions that will end up being filed under 'inaccurate'.
04-07-2017 01:16 PM
AndyW1384 said:
While I have no expertise in the field... human level AI in 15 years? I don't believe that. It's not like AI has come all that far in the last 15 years. They still haven't got decent natural language recognition, let alone natural language understanding, and while visual recognition and use of vast data sets has come on by leaps and bounds, they haven't progressed so far in the last 15 years that it seems likely that they'll reach the levels of human capability in the next.
04-07-2017 01:28 PM
Storm_Cloud said:
I'd like to see his reasoning and numbers on this because some of those claims are way out there. Render farms can't truly convince us that something created in CGI is indistinguishable from reality. Not going to happen in realtime on your computer in 15 years. Talking of which his claim about processing power being a billion times greater in 25 years is a bit misleading because of the caveat he makes of 'per dollar'. Obviously costs tumble per calculation as time goes on, but he gives no indication of how much more processing power we'll have in 25 years. Improvements have noticeably slowed over recent years and unless there's some radical breakthrough, years between cycles are going to lengthen each generation.