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"Consumer interest in VR is declining according to sales data trends"!?

RuneSR2
Grand Champion
https://media.thinknum.com/articles/sales-data-shows-that-consumer-interest-in-vr-is-waning/

Maybe the suggested trends are true, but I have several problems with that article. 

1. The first graph doesn't show PS4 VR sales strictly - it shows Skyrim Bundle Sales Rank. I don't like Skyrim - I'd never go for that bundle too. 

2. Next is HTC Vive - which seems to go up in May and slightly down in June - but it starts at about 90 in March and finishes at about 97 in June. Not much variation - and we all know that the summer vacation means low VR sales. So I don't see any specific trend here at all - actually VIVE seems to be doing fine or at least seems stable. 

3. Then comes Samsung Gear VR. Note that this chart must be only showing data from 2016 - it ends in "Nov" and the text only mentions the year 2016. So this chart does not belong with the other results, it seems like a far-fetched attempt be the author to support some trend that the author believes exists. 

4. Finally there's Oculus Go -  which are the results that worry me the most. Still new things often ride on an initial wave of curiosity, and will then slowly sink to a more stable level, maybe that's what we're seeing here. 

Also note the chart that has been omitted by the author - the Rift chart! Is the author hiding something that doesn't support the proposed trend?

So I just checked the latest Steam VR hardware survey results - today they are - July 11 2018:

iev0j5pzwegl.jpg

And:

i6a7mmjcla5z.jpg

And here they are April 30 2018 (I mailed the results to some friends back then, so therefore I have these results):

VR Headsets 
Oculus Rift 0.20%
HTC Vive 0.18%
Windows Mixed Reality 0.01%
Oculus Rift DK2 0.01%
Oculus Rift DK1 0.00%
Unknown 0.00%

Thus Rift has gone from 0.20% to 0.32% - that's a massive 60% increase in just 2 months! 
HTC Vive went up from 0.18 to 0.31 - a massive 72% increase in just 2 months!
Windows MR also increased 5 times from 0.01 to 0.05 - that's not bad either, right?

I do believe that Oculus Go and Gear VR may be poisoning the well - but I really don't see any decline in real VR adoption - if current Steam trends are continuing, Rift and Vive may reach 1% in 9 to 12 months, which would make these headsets about as popular as the GeForce GTX 1080 Ti  😉 

Oculus Rift CV1, Valve Index & PSVR2, Asus Strix OC RTX™ 3090, i9-10900K (5.3Ghz), 32GB 3200MHz, 16TB SSD
"Ask not what VR can do for you, but what you can do for VR"

132 REPLIES 132

KenSniper
Adventurer
I'm the type that usually take these kind of articles with a grain of salt, but like what others have stated, there is no actual sales data, and simply tasting the wind from your own perspective doesnt really address the current state of VR.

I'm still using my rift almost everyday, or at least every week since i bought it almost 2 years ago, (damn, it has been 2 years), and I believe that the continuity and the life of VR all depends on us, from us showing support, sharing gameplay vids, content creation, funny moments, like how VRchat boomed and really racked in a lot of sales in VR headsets. A lot of people claim they want that "killer app", but for me Virtual Reality as a whole is my killer app. I've been yearning for VR since I was a little kid exposed to the .hack series, and now that it's here Im not gonna let it die just like that

WreckLuse68
Heroic Explorer

snowdog said:

The funniest thing about this article and other similar articles discussing the same sort of thing is that apart from the GearVR and PSVR sales WE HAVE NO OFFICIAL SALES DATA AT ALL. These are just guesstimations.

The VR industry is doing fine, nobody with any sense was expecting VR to go anywhere near mainstream this early and sell truckloads. Oculus themselves made a statement ages ago saying it could take 5-10 years for this to happen.


I'll come back in 5-10 years then.
When Einstein was asked how it felt to be the smartest man on Earth, he replied, “I wouldn’t know. Ask Nikola Tesla”.

JohnnyDioxin
Expert Trustee
'Bye then 😉

In the meantime, I'll be having a whale of a time in my Rift! - I'm not exaclty a youngster, either - far from it, but I use my Rift now more than I ever did (had it over 2 years) and I often think back to a post - here or on Reddit, where some guy was asking how soon the novelty effect would wear off and our Rifts would sit unused on the shelf - and I still wonder, as i did then, wtf he was on about 😄

i5 9600k @4.5GHz; 16GB DDR4 3200; 6xSSD; RTX2080ti; Gigabyte Z390D Mobo
Rift CV1; Index; Quest; Quest 2

Anonymous
Not applicable
@WreckLuse68
Your assumptions...like your logic...are completely way out...

You mean like your argumentation? Oh no, that one is non-existent.
If my logic is out, how about you explain what I got wrong? I did quote your own words.
Besides, just because I quoted you doesn't mean I answered directly to you. It was more of a general answer, towards people sayng VR is not a revolution and, as we usually hear, "just a gimmick". That includes you but isn't specific for you, bear that in mind.

Anyway, you said (literally) that VR isn't revolutionary for home entertainment, I explained why it actually is, and what it brings that nothing else could. There is no flaw in that logic. If there is, how about you point it out? It's called common sense.

kevinw729
Honored Visionary

snowdog said:

......
The VR industry is doing fine, nobody with any sense was expecting VR to go anywhere near mainstream this early and sell truckloads. Oculus themselves made a statement ages ago saying it could take 5-10 years for this to happen.



A valid point - and for the "majority" of the level headed posters in the VR community that did not buying-in to the Koolaid - VR is doing fine "for them"! They got their PC high-end VR, they have great games, and they have great simulation - and for these Prosumers they can look forward to a consumer sector (as with 3D gaming) that speaks to them and will not be mainstream in a long time, but will support their needs.

But that was not what was sold to most (and more importantly those that invested to now allow the Prosumers to be happy!); and that is where the resentment stems from from some media and investments. We have to admit that a number of investors and evangelists were sold on the Kickstarter and FB acquisition story of "VR will be big by 2016" - and that this will be a major industry in consumer. As one that was attacked for questioning this back in 2015-16-17 - I think it was a view that more than just a few "with no sense" expected!

I am typing this from DEVELOP Brighton - a major UK game developer conference, and as an examples a number of the indie development teams that once supported VR development post DK2 have either ended their love affair with VR (2016 there was numerous VR on show - this year four examples!); Or we see the pivoting - why you find a Out-of-Home entertainment specialist invited to a consumer game conference!  B)
https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

RuneSR2
Grand Champion
Sigh - posted a comment in the wrong thread, sorry  😞 

Oculus Rift CV1, Valve Index & PSVR2, Asus Strix OC RTX™ 3090, i9-10900K (5.3Ghz), 32GB 3200MHz, 16TB SSD
"Ask not what VR can do for you, but what you can do for VR"

kevinw729
Honored Visionary

Atmos73 said:

There are several reasons VR hadn’t taken off as the OP suggests.

The current most popular GPU for PC gaming is a GTX1060 at 14%. This card is not recommended for VR. If you want PCVR you need the cash for a decent...



I think you will see that we have covered a dedicated list in other posts about the stumbling blocks. And GPU and availability has increased as a reason, but by no means the first reason. Cypto-mining has played its part in impacting the overall price of consumer VR and availability of supply - but the fundamental of why the non-Prosumer has not invested in PC high-end VR are more than clear, and uncomfortable for some that thought it would be mainstream.

I think that "Ballpark-Gate" impacted the perception of what PC VR would be priced at (with the core audience for VR) more than we thought - and that possibly the inability to internally admit this resulted inevitably in the departures, but also the need for the sea change in thinking towards the 5-10 road-map that was so criticised at the time.

A factor why I have my reservations regarding what @snowdog said about a possible CV2 for 2019, when I think the writing is on the wall regarding a core focus for the next 15-months on SC!

https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

bigmike20vt
Visionary

Atmos73 said:

 That means we are not in our right mind


you may be right, but if so i am blissfully out of my mind ::smile:

yes the eye candy is not close to battlefield on a 4k display.... but i would take the immersion offered in VR every day of the week, and i suspect many of us here feel the same (maybe even you yourself given you are getting a pimax 8k and you will need a monster to run that properly)

the eye candy IS catching up tho, just look at games like lone echo and others coming soon - that james bondy one looks fab.
next gen hopefully out soon should lower the price of entry even more.  a 1060 is just fine for most made for VR games, (ie not 2D games with VR added on)..... i suspect an 1150 will be considered VR ready and at that point we will be getting down to the point where entry level gaming machines are vr ready almost by default.


Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR 🙂

RuneSR2
Grand Champion



Atmos73 said:

 That means we are not in our right mind


you may be right, but if so i am blissfully out of my mind ::smile:

yes the eye candy is not close to battlefield on a 4k display.... but i would take the immersion offered in VR every day of the week, and i suspect many of us here feel the same (maybe even you yourself given you are getting a pimax 8k and you will need a monster to run that properly)

the eye candy IS catching up tho, just look at games like lone echo and others coming soon - that james bondy one looks fab.
next gen hopefully out soon should lower the price of entry even more.  a 1060 is just fine for most made for VR games, (ie not 2D games with VR added on)..... i suspect an 1150 will be considered VR ready and at that point we will be getting down to the point where entry level gaming machines are vr ready almost by default.




I think the best VR games look better than the best 2D games. Nothing compares to Lone Echo or the jungle in Robinson: The Journey (made by Crytek). I don't recall any AAA 2D game with a trailer that looks better than Seeking Dawn (we'll see how the game match the trailer soon). Graphics are great in 2D games like BattleField 1 and Rise of the Tomb Raider - and especially Hellblade impressed me - but nah, nothing compares to VR, and I really mean that. 

Hellblade trailer - for those who are not familiar with that game - all is in-game graphics (Unreal Engine 4)

https://youtu.be/nfiS_PV3V-4

The price of having Lone Echo - and Doom VFR - looking that good is unfortunately that you'll need a GTX 1080 or similar - or even better - and a high-end cpu. Battlefield 1 performs great on a GTX 1060 in 1920x1080 - same goes for Rise of the Tomb Raider - and Hellblade. 

I think I'll need at least a GTX 2080 to run Obduction VR at 90 fps using super-sampling (SS) 2.0. 

Getting better VR headsets will probably just fuel the need for faster GPUs - already now Vive Pro owners can't enable a lot of SS before 1080 Ti runs out of juice. 

Still there are many VR games not requiring much GPU power - by lowering details, even Lone Echo should be able to run nicely on GTX 1060.

Oculus Rift CV1, Valve Index & PSVR2, Asus Strix OC RTX™ 3090, i9-10900K (5.3Ghz), 32GB 3200MHz, 16TB SSD
"Ask not what VR can do for you, but what you can do for VR"

kevinw729
Honored Visionary

Atmos73 said:
.....
For VR to succeed forget about dedicated games that’s a short term fix imo.
.....



I think that speaks back to the original management that felt all was needed was that "killer app" - and why we kept plugging VR consumer as a Flatscreen solution rather than a XBox approach to business - you care about the program on the TV, and not the make of the Flatscreen. Fundamentally, why the investment into RockBandVR was such a dead-end, and illustrated the lack of vision of those steering at the time.

....
VR needs to find a way (foveated rendering) to bridge the gap. As higher resolutions come to VR power requirements are heading in the wrong direction for PCVR to become mainstream and VR will be reliant on the 1% who own 1180s. 

Again, that feels more like a "look at the quality, ignore the price" kind of argument.
I agree that all these new features (and more) will be great for the final deliverable, but wonder if the road to that deliverable needs more focus on what is offered (one-stop solution of high quality), rather than short "standalone" babysteps.

We are lead to understand that at OC5, the new management team will outline a more "dedicated release schedule" and less time spent on convoluted prototyping, more focused on socialVR (explaining recent departures and new hiring's). For me, the ability for the marketing shy company to get behind defining CV1 and SC will be essential.
https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959